Maine Scouting Report/Analysis/Prediction

The Black Bears went 4-7 last season and lost to Iowa 46-3 last week. Jack Cosgrove is entering his 16th season as the head coach of Maine and sports an 80-91 record at the helm of the Black Bears. He began his coaching career as a graduate assistant coach at Maine in 1978 and after stints as the head coach of Stoughton High School in Massachusetts and an offensive assistant at Boston College, he returned to Orono in 1987. He was named Atlantic 10 Coach of the Year in 1996 and 2001 and is tied with Harold Westerman for the most coaching wins all-time at Maine.

Offensive Scouting Report: Maine began their season on the road at Iowa of the BIG TEN on Saturday, losing 46-3. In the game, the Black Bears gained 220 yards of total offense, including 137 on the ground. Preseason All-Colonial Athletic Association running back Jhamal Fluellen gained 104 yards on 21 carries in the contest. Last year, Fluellen gained 1,052 yards and five touchdowns and is the focal point of the Maine offense. Derek Session also gained 21 yards on four carries for UM. The Black Bears struggled throwing the football as quarterback Adam Farkes was 9-22 passing against the Hawkeyes with a pair on interceptions. He threw for 83 yards, 40 of which belong to receiver Michael Brusko. Last season, the Black Bears ranked 11th in the 12-team CAA in scoring offense, averaging 16.9 points per game, but the Black Bears did rank fourth in the CAA in rushing, averaging a shade under 179 yards per game on the ground.

Defensive Scouting Report: Maine’s defense surrendered 457 yards of total offense to Iowa last Saturday, including 212 passing yards and 245 yards on the ground. Preseason CAA Defensive Player of the Year Jovan Belcher, a senior defensive end, led the UM defense with nine tackles, including one for loss. Sophomore linebacker Levi Erwin was second on the team with seven stops. The Black Bears picked off one pass and broke up three others against the Hawkeyes. The Maine defense returns eight starters to last year’s unit which ranked seventh in the CAA in scoring defense, giving up 24.5 points per game. The Black Bears ranked fourth in pass defense in the league (191.1 ypg), fifth in rushing defense (146.0 ypg) and fourth in overall defense. When the UM defense allowed the opposition to reach the red zone, they scored, as they gave up scores on 95.7 % of their chances, including 17 touchdowns.

Special Teams Scouting Report: Maine’s kickoff return team averaged 14.8 yards per return against Iowa, as they brought back five kickoffs for 74 yards. Trevor Coston led the Black Bears with four returns for 52 yards. Brian Harvey hit his only field goal against Iowa, connecting on a 40-yarder. Kash Kiefer is Maine’s punter, hitting seven punts for 279 yards.

My take on Maine and my prediction:

For the second straight week, Monmouth takes on a team from the Colonial Athletic Association. Last season the Hawks and Maine squared off to begin the 2007 campaign, with Monmouth falling to the Black Bears 21-14 in Orono.

Traditionally, Maine is a very strong defensive team that relies on that unit for field position for the offense. The Black Bears are no different this year as they tout Preseason CAA Defensive Player of the Year Javon Belcher at defensive end. They can also run the ball with reigning All-CAA running back Jhamal Fluellen, who last week cracked the century mark. Weather has the potential to affect tomorrow’s game as Hurrican Hanna makes her way up the coast. In bad weather games, the advantage normally goes to the team that can run the ball and stop the run, and to that point both teams can do both of those things well.

If Dave Sinisi can offset what Fluellen produces in the run game, that will be a huge point for the Hawks. Monmouth has the advantage throwing the football, but depending on the severity of the weather, that may not be an issue. At last check, it was supposed to be in the upper 70’s temp. wise with rain and wind expected to be around 15-25 mph. That weather, combined with two teams that can run the ball and do stop the run means we could be looking at a low-scoring affair.
Whoever scores early will have the advantage in this contest. Last week, my score differential of three was correct, and this week, it will also be a close game. I think Monmouth carries their momentum from last week’s strong second half performance into this week’s game, Sinisi has another 100-yard game and the defense contains Fluellen to the tune of a 17-13 Monmouth win.