Thursday, October 22, 2009

Albany Scouting Report/Prediction

Albany Scouting Report

Offense: The Albany offense is predicated on a power running game centered on tailback David McCarty. The Great Danes run the ball more than 60% of the time as a team, with 57% of their carries going to McCarty. UAlbany averages 176 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in the league, and McCarty is second in individual rushing (behind MU’s David Sinisi) with 752 yards. McCarty also is tied for the league lead with eight rushing touchdowns. Two other rushers, Justin Gannon and Andrew Smith, both have over 255 yards rushing, and Smith is averaging 7.1 yards per carry. UA is throwing the football this year better than in recent seasons, averaging 167 passing yards per game. QB Vinny Esposito is completing 56.1% of his passes with seven scores this season and his leading receiver is sixth-year senior Tim Bush, who has 37 catches for 535 yards. Two other receivers, Jason Poore and Ryan Kirchner, have at least 13 catches and 142 yards receiving. The Great Danes average 25.3 points per game, which is good enough for fourth in the nine-team league.

Defense: The Great Danes play some of the most consistent defense in the conference year in and year out. This season, they rank first in the league in scoring and rushing defense, allowing 18.7 points and 98.1 rushing yards per game, respectively. Teams have had success throwing the ball against UA, as they give up 211.3 yards per contest and allow their opponents to complete a league-high 61.4% of their passes. Linebacker Justin Brancaccio leads the squad with 60 tackles and also had 5.5 tackles for loss. Linebacker Dave Nicomini, who missed all of last season with an injury, is second on the team with 49 stops and leads the squad with 10 tackles for loss. UAlbany has 54 tackles for loss as a team, including 17 sacks. They have also blocked three kicks this season so far. Last week against Bryant, the Great Danes held the Bulldogs to more than 100 rushing yards below their season average in a 20-17 win. UA has held their last five opponents under 17 points, including a 20-16 comeback win over then-#20 Maine.

Special teams: Herb Glass is the Great Danes kicker and he has connected on 11-of-16 field goals this season, including a 48-yarder. He is a perfect 6-for-6 from between 18-29 yards this season and has made 4-of-7 from between 30-39 yards. Bobby Woods is the team’s punter, and averages 35.7 yards per punt, pinning the opposition inside their 20-yard line five times. Andrew Smith and Emerson Kinsey are the team’s two kickoff returners, averaging 25.2 and 24.8 yards per kick return, respectively. Justin Gannon is the squad’s punt returner, averaging 14.4 yards per return, which leads the conference. UA has only allowed 17 punt return yards this season, and limits their opposition to less than 20 yards per kick return.

My take: This is the game in the Northeast Conference every season. It is tradtionally football played at its purest, with the team that runs the ball and stops the run the most effectively normally winning. The Hawks four straight in the season in the mid-2000's, but UAlbany has won two straight times in the series (and two straight league titles). If the Hawks can corral McCarty and the Great Danes rushing offense, and force Esposito to throw on obvious passing downs, they can be successful. MU must force-feed Sinisi to the Great Danes, try to soften the middle of their defense, and then take some shots in the passing game with QB Kyle Frazier and his receiving corps. If MU can be balanced on offense and solid on defense, they will have a chance in this game. Being that the contest will be played on Monmouth's Homecoming, and knowing what that means as a grad, I think the Hawks will come through with the win at home. Frazier continues to impress as the team's starting QB and tight end Tyler George (my X-factor) takes the next step in the passing game and catches some big passes on bootlegs and in the seam. Sinisi will have a workmanlike day in front of the home crowd, and MU's opportunistic forces Esposito into 3rd and longs and comes up with a few turnovers, while Mike Avent and the special teams return game will give the Hawks the ball in good field position. Monmouth comes away with a shocking 27-23 win at home at Homecoming.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Getting Ready for Albany/Homecoming week....

So last week's contest with Sacred Heart proved to be a nice tune-up for the Hawks homecoming game against Albany this week. MU played it best 60 minutes of football against the Pioneers, and Kyle Frazier threw the ball better than he ever has in a Monmouth uniform. That will bode will this week against the Great Danes, who have won 17 straight league games. Some tidbits on the Monmouth-Albany series before the full-fledged preview comes out on Thursday:

- The winner of the MU-UAlbany game has won the league title six times in the last seven years, including Monmouth’s championships in 2003, 2004 and 2006.

- In the 11 all-time meetings, four have been decided by a touchdown or less, including one on the last play.

- Monmouth’s first win in the series come back on October 18, 2003, when the Blue and White’s defense led the way to a 10-7 win in West Long Branch.

- MU won the game in 2004, 25-24, after falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter and trailing 21-10 midway through the third quarter.

- Then sophomore quarterback Brian Boland, who would go on to lead MU to three league titles in his four years as the signal caller, engineered a 15-play, 77-yard drive that culminated with Steve Andriola hitting a game-winning 23-yard field goal as time expired to give the Hawks a 25-24 win.

- In 2006, Boland set a Monmouth record for completion percentage, going 17-for-18 passing with 213 yards and added 32 rushing yards in the 19-0 win at Albany, which gave the Hawks the NEC Title.

- The Great Danes have won the last two meetings in the series, and consequently have also won the last two NEC Championships, including last season’s 35-17 win.

- This season’s edition features the two best running backs in the conference in Monmouth’s David Sinisi and Albany’s David McCarty. They rank 1-2 in the NEC in rushing yards and yards per game, while also tying for the league-lead with eight rushing scores.

- The two rivals have combined to win eight league championships in 13 years, and are the two most consistent teams in the league, both within conference play and out of it.

- Last season, the two clubs placed 21 players on the All-NEC First or Second teams.

- The team’s two head coaches, MU’s Kevin Callahan and UA’s Bob Ford, have a combined 320 wins in their respective tenures at the two schools.

Preview and prediction to come on Thursday....

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Sacred Heart Scout/Prediction

First off, let's get the Wagner game out of the way. The Seahawks played very well last week against Monmouth and deserved to win. WC hit for three big plays early (which coach Callahan had said he was worried about happening) and MU never fully recovered. Wagner QB Doscher played very well and was very effective directing the offense, making the necessary deep throws when we had to and he ran for 55 yards and a score.


This week, Monmouth takes on a Sacred Heart squad coming off a 29-7 win over Saint Francis (Pa.) in which they allowed -3 rushing yards. -3!! Below is a scouting report on this week's opponent and my prediction:

Offense: Sacred Heart runs a variation of the ever-popular spread offense, and they try to be surprisingly balanced out of it. They do not run all of their plays out of shotgun, like Colgate did, and they will sometimes line up under center in conventional formations. The Pioneers throw the ball 55% of the time, and rank second in the league in passing offense, averaging 217.4 yards through the air per game. SHU QB Dale Fink is the NEC’s leading passer, completing 59% of his passes for 969 yards with five TD’s and a league-high tying eight interceptions. Fink’s main target is fifth-year senior Steve Tedesco, who has 25 catches for 338 yards and three scores. Three other receivers, Rich Rossi, Tony Patterson and Garry Coles, all have at least 17 catches and 135 yards on the season as well. Coles is also the team’s leading rusher, with 210 yards, while Brian Friedman has rushed for 204 yards and a team-best 6.2 ypc. The Pioneers only average 92 rushing yards per game, however, and score 16.6. points per game, which ranks eighth in the nine-team league.

Defense: The Pioneers run a 3-4 defensive alignment, and rank fifth in the conference in total yards allowed, giving up 337.4 yards per contest. SHU allows 27.2 points per game, which ranks seventh in the league, but after allowing 83 combined points in the season’s first two games, the unit has allowed only 17.6 per contest over the last three. The unit has not been very opportunistic this season as the Pioneers rank last in the league with a -6 turnover margin, forcing a league-low five takeaways. They are coming off a 29-7 win over Saint Francis (Pa.) in which they only allowed 180 total yards, including -3 rushing yards. Chris Mandas leads the unit with 42 tackles, including two for loss, while Justin Embler has 36 stops and a team-high five TFL and three sacks. Brian Flumere has 33 tackles, including three for loss, and the team’s lone interception. They allow their opponents to convert 41% of their third downs, and have also given up red zone scores on 74% of the time.

Special Teams: Matt Fisher is Sacred Heart’s kicker, and he has connected on all three of his field goal attempts this season. He has a long of 28 yards and all of his kicks have come between 20-28 yards. Running back Brian Friedman is also the team’s punter, averaging 37.6 yards per punt this year with seven of his 22 punts landing inside the opponent’s 20. Brett Swider leads the team with 280 kickoff return yards, while Coles’ 29.9 yard average is the squad’s high. He also has a 99-yard return for a TD this season. Cole is also the team’s punt returner, averaging seven yards per return.

My take: Sacred Heart is a better team than its 1-4 overall record shows. They can move the ball with QB Fink and their trio of receivers. Coles is a solid back and Friedman supplies a nice change-of-pace at back with his power. The weather for the weekend looks rainy, but I see a shootout forming in Fairfield, Conn. The Hawks and Pioneers both allow over 24 points per game and I think the offenses will be showcased on Saturday. The rain should affect the predominantly passing Pioneers (a little alliteration for you), and benefit the Hawks' third-ranked NEC rushing attack. MU will make more plays in the end, and Jose Gumbs second week back from injury will be a better one (even though it's hard to improve on winning NEC Defensive Player of the Week honors last week), and MU will squeeze out a 31-27 win.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Wagner Scouting Report/Prediction

Wagner Scouting Report

Offense: The Seahawks list themselves as a conventional offense formation-wise (2 RB’s, 2 WR’s, TE), but they run the majority of their stuff out of the spread. Wagner, who averages a league-best 33.8 pts. per game, will run very similar stuff to what Colgate and ODU did with multiple-receiver sets and the QB in the shotgun almost exclusively. WC runs the ball two-thirds of the time, and they run a heavy amount of QB-RB zone read, as evidenced by the team’s two leading rushers being RB Dominique Williams and QB Nick Doscher, both freshmen. Williams leads the team, and ranks seventh in the league, with 427 yards on the ground and leads the league with seven rushing TD’s. Doscher ranks second on the team with 186 rushing yds. and five TD’s, while also ranking second on the team with 323 passing yards. Junior QB Tyler Newberry leads the team with 377 yards passing and three TD’s, while also rushing for 76 yards. Lon Woods is the team’s best receiving threat, with 15 catches for 270 yards and two TD’s. Two other receivers, Morgan Mizell and David Crawford, both have over 100 yards receiving this season.

Defense: Wagner is a 4-3 defensive team, and has shown a propensity for giving up big plays. The defense allows a league-high 33.6 points per game, while also surrendering 369.8 yards of total offense per contest. The Seahawks surrender 221.2 rushing yards per game, and they have also given up 42, 59 and 48 points in a game already this season. Sophomore safety Jeremiah Brown leads the team in tackles with 34, and also has 2.5 TFL and a forced fumble. Fellow safety Chaz Legette is second on the team with 30 stops, while nose tackle Joseph Harkins leads the club with six TFL. Wagner does have 31 tackles for loss as a team this year, but only six sacks. The unit, which gives up only 148.6 passing yards per game, does have 22 passes broken up, but only two interceptions. Last week, in the Seahawks first NEC game of the year, they only allowed six points to Bryant, but did give up 340 yards of total offense.

Special Teams: Wagner lists David Lopez, a freshman, as its kicker. He is 0-for-3 on field goals this season, including 0-2 from 20-29 yards outs, but he is a perfect 21-for-21 on extra points. Junior Kyle Muir is the team’s punter, and is averaging 40.7 yards per kick on his 21 attempts. He has put 12 punts inside the opposition’s 20-yard line and has a long of 60 yards this season. Frantz Placide and Lon Woods return kickoffs for Wagner, and each player 240 yards this season for two very good averages (26.7 and 30 ypr, respectively). Placide also has an 89-yard touchdown return to his credit this season. RB Williams leads the team in punt returns with 64 yards and a 10.7 yards per return average.

My take: Wagner has shown the ability to put up points this season, having scored over 40 points on three different occasions, despite being outgained by almost 80 yards per game. The Seahawks have one of the conference's rising stars in Williams and three very dynamic wide receivers, led by Woods. If Monmouth can force WC into third-and-long situations by shutting down the zone-read option game on first and second down, then I think they can be successful. I look for Sinisi to have a typical David afternoon (150 yds. or so) and get in to the end zone a few times. How Frazier handles being the every-series QB will play a huge roll in the game, and as often between these two teams, whoever wins the battle at the line of scrimmage will win the game. I think Wagner will hit a few big plays to its WR's, but in the end, MU's running game and improved defensive play will win out to the tune of a 34-21 Hawks win.