Monday, September 29, 2008

Monmouth-Robert Morris

The Hawks came home from Western PA with a 34-26 win over Robert Morris. The offense played very well, rolling up 456 yards of total offense in the win. Not to sound like a coach here, but anytime you get a conference road win, it's a good start, and the Hawks are off to a 1-0 start in the league.

Monmouth is now 2-3 on the season and has scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games, both wins.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Robert Morris Scouting Report/Analysis/Prediction

Robert Morris is 1-2 after beating Morehead State (Phil Simms' alma mater for those Giants fans) and losing to Bucknell and Dayton. The Colonials are coached by the legendary Joe Walton, who like Monmouth’s Kevin Callahan, started the Robert Morris football program from scratch 14 years ago. Walton, the former head man of the New York Jets from 1983-89, has compiled an 87-57-1 in his time in Moon Township. Walton’s teams have won five Northeast Conference championships since the inception of the league in 1996. Walton led the Colonials to back-to-back I-AA Mid-Major National Championships in 1999 and 2000, including going 10-0 in 2000. The 1957 Pittsburgh graduate also spent time with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins and New York Giants in his time in the National Football League.

Offense: Robert Morris runs a pro-style offense and is a very balanced team, sporting almost an exact 50-50 run-pass ratio. The Colonials rank seventh in the eight-team Northeast Conference in scoring, averaging 18.3 points per game. Their seven touchdowns are tied for second to last in the conference along with Albany. They average 381.7 yards of total offense per game, good enough for third in the league. RMU ranks second in the NEC in passing, averaging 262.7 yards through the air per game, but ranks sixth in rushing, averaging 119.0 yards per contest on the ground. The Colonials are led offensively by quarterback Erik Cwalinski, who has completed 48.9% of his passes for 713 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. RMU has a very dangerous duo of wide receivers in Sherrod Evers and James O’Quinn, who have combined for 28 catches for 527 yards and three touchdowns. Their leading rusher is Myles Russ, who has gained 293 yards (6.2 ypc) and a touchdown. RMU’s offense has converted 40% of their third down chances this season, but has only converted 4-of-10 chances in the red zone (two TD’s).

Defense: RMU ranks third in the conference in scoring defense, giving up 20.3 points per game and they have allowed the second fewest touchdowns (eight) in the NEC. The Colonials have been stout against the run, allowing 112.7 ypg and only 2.8 yards per attempt. Robert Morris also ranks third in the league in pass defense, surrendering 182.3 yards through the air per contest. The RMU defense is led by sophomore linebacker Alex DiMichele, who leads the NEC with 40 tackles. Adam Lawrence ranks second on the squad with 26 stops. Junior defensive end Mark Szymanski leads the team, and the NEC, with six tackles for loss and is tied with Lawrence for the team lead with 1.5 sacks. Junior strong safety Michael Landers leads the team with two interceptions and also has 1.5 tackles for loss on the season. The Colonials are limiting the opposition to only 34% third down conversions, but have allowed scores on 67% of their opponents red zone trips, including touchdowns on 67% of those scores.

Special Teams: Garrett Clawson is RMU’s kicker, and so far he has converted 2-of-5 field goals and all seven of his extra points. Chris Kozak is their main return specialist, leading the squad with four punt returns for 37 yards (9.2 avg.) and nine kickoff returns for 182 yards (20.2 avg.). Robert Morris does allow 22.7 yards per kick return and 13.9 yards per punt return on the season thus far.

My take on Robert Morris and my prediction:

The Colonials run a lot of NFL-type formations on offense, which is a direct of influence of Walton's extensive time in the league. On defense, RMU is solid and possess a solid D-line and linebacking corps. Their QB Cwalinski is big and not mobile in the sense that he will break big runs, but he is mobile within the pocket and always is looking downfield. RB Russ is a game-breaker, but hasn't had a game where he firmly establishes himself as the game's best runner.

The Hawks and Colonials have had some epic contests, most notably MU's 29-27 win in Moon Township on a last second tipped pass in the end zone three years ago. The Colonials represent the "old guard" of the NEC, even though the league is still fairly young. They have won the conference five times and along with the Hawks and Albany represent the NEC's traditional powers.

I believe weather will be an issue as rain is expected in the Pittsburgh area on Saturday. If that is the case, I believe that it falls in MU's favor because they possess the superior running game and run defense, while Robert Morris would prefer ideal conditions for their passing game. I do think David Sinisi will run for 100 yards again and that Burke will manage the offense well. I would look for TE John Nalbone to have a big afternoon as well. Defensively, I think MU will get after Cwalinksi, even though the QB will put up numbers if the weather allows. After all is said and done, I think the game will be very competitive and come down to special teams and the kicking game, where the Hawks hold the advantage with Fred Weingart. The Hawks control the tempo of the game and I think they outlast Robert Morris in a defensive contest, prevailing 20-17 in another close call with the Colonials.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Monmouth-Bryant

The Hawks defeated Bryant 30-17 on Saturday afternoon in Rhode Island. MU received a huge day from running back David Sinisi, who ran for 171 yards and two touchdowns. QB Brett Burke also had a great afternoon, completing 13-of-15 passes for 150 yards and a score. Special recognition goes out to WR Steve Dowens, who caught two passes for 75 yards.

This was the first week I did a prediction and did not correctly predict the exact score difference ( I said MU would win 27-16), but I will take the win. Monmouth played well in the game and got a solid win over a good football team in Bryant. I will have my complete scouting report for Robert Morris later in the week.

Meanwhile, enjoy the weekend of football (go Giants) and catch you all soon.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Bryant Scouting Report/Analysis/Prediction

Bryant is 2-1 after losing to NEC member CCSU 42-35 and beating Division II opponents Southern Connecticut and Merrimack. Marty Fine is in his fifth season at the helm of Bryant, sporting a 29-15 record in his time in Smithfield. Fine, who has led the Bulldogs to at least seven wins in each of the last three seasons, has two Northeast-10 Conference championships and two NCAA playoff appearances to his credit in his four seasons as head coach. The Western New Mexico graduate is leading Bryant into Division I, and eventually the Northeast Conference in 2012, during this transitional period.

Offense: Bryant’s offense is predicated on a power running game; in an age where the spread offense and multiple receiver sets rule, the Bulldogs prefer lining up with a fullback or two-tight end set. They run the ball 64% of the time, and their head coach and playcaller, Marty Fine, is a former offensive lineman who would love to control the line of scrimmage. Bryant averages 31.3 points per game and averages 11 more minutes in time of possession than the opposition. Their primary ball carrier is Jerell Smith, a Howard transfer, who has 444 yards on 75 carries (5.9 ypc) this season to go along with three touchdowns. Smith is averaging 148 yards per game on the ground for a team that averages 192 rushing yards per contest. Jay Graber is the Bulldogs’ quarterback, and he has completed 55.4% of his passes for 497 yards (165.7 ypg) with five touchdowns and four interceptions. Ross Giffune has proven to be Graber’s favorite target with eight catches for 77 yards, but Vinton Smith is their big-play threat with seven grabs for 121 yards (17.3 ypc).

Defense: The Bulldogs give up an average of 28.3 points and 401 yards of total offense per game to their opponents so far this season. While they give up 143.7 yards rushing per game, BU gives up 257.3 yards passing per game so far this year, but does hold opponents to under 50% completions. Bryant’s defense has proven opportunistic this season, forcing 16 turnovers for a +10 margin. Bryce Martins leads the team with 24 tackles while Paul Polomski has 22 tackles to go along with two picks. Defensive back Samad Wagstaff leads the squad with five interceptions and also has two pass break-ups. Don Smith is a versatile defender, stuffing the stat sheet with a team-high 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks, as well as five quarterback hurries, one pass break-up, one fumble forced and recovered and one blocked kick. The Bulldogs defense only allows opponents to convert 38% of their third down chances as well.

Special Teams: Leading rusher Jerell Smith is also the team’s kickoff return leader with 12 returns for 214 yards (17.8 ypr). Ryan Buckley has also returned a pair of kickoffs for 58 yards for the Bulldogs. Bryant has struggled in the punt return game, as two Bulldogs have combined on five returns for 20 yards. Chris Bird is 4-for-7 kicking, but just 1-of-3 from beyond 40 yards. Brian Donnelly is BU’s punter, and has averaged 35.5 ypp, but has gotten two kicks blocked already this season.

My take on Bryant and my prediction:

The Bulldogs believe in old school, power football and will try to establish the line of scrimmage against MU. Monmouth has been effective against the run this season and their 135.7 rushing yards per game allowed, which is third in the NEC, is slightly misleading. I believe that the Hawks should be able to contain the Bryant running game for the most part, and will force the Bulldogs into some third-and-longs, which they are not built to convert.

The game will be close, but I believe Dave Sinisi, Brett Burke and the Monmouth offense will get things going early and score some points. I think Monmouth plays from ahead in this game, forcing Bryant to abandon their power running game and making them more one-dimensional than they want to be. I think that Sinisi has a big day, around 150 yards rushing and at least one touchdown, and Burke is his normal efficient self. I also like what I’ve seen out of the Monmouth special teams recently, and a few big kick returns set Monmouth up with a short field. The Hawks convert their red-zone chances with TD’s and MU will come away with a 27-16 win.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Week 3 Wrap-up

As some people have pointed out to me, I didn't make a prediction this past weekend. The reason for that was selfish, I thought my predictions were bad luck and I was trying to shake it up a little; that plan backfired.

Coastal Carolina is a talented team with athletes at every position and I would be shocked if they didn't win the Big South this year. As for the Hawks, it was a rough day, but there were some positives to take away. Nick Romeo had a good day receiving and Jose Gumbs lowered the boom on a few Chanticleers from his safety spot.

This week, MU travels to take on future NEC member Bryant in Rhode Island, their second trip to the Ocean State this year. I will have a full preview and PREDICTION up by Thursday/Friday.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Week 2 Wrap-up

For the second straight week, my predicted score differential was spot on, but again I picked the wrong team. Maine defeated Monmouth 21-17 on a deflected touchdown pass on a 4th and 21 late in the fourth quarter. While the Hawks did an excellent job on tailback Jhamal Fluellen, defensive end Javon Belcher had a big game for Maine.

MU running back David Sinisi did become the program's all-time leading rusher in the game, eclipsing Chris Reed's previous record. This week, Monmouth takes on Coastal Carolina, who lost to Penn State (66-10) and Colgate (23-19) this season.

I will have my complete scouting report for the Chanticleers (which is, according the CCU media guide, a rooster who rules the barn with cunning and wit) up on Friday along with my prediction.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Maine Scouting Report/Analysis/Prediction

The Black Bears went 4-7 last season and lost to Iowa 46-3 last week. Jack Cosgrove is entering his 16th season as the head coach of Maine and sports an 80-91 record at the helm of the Black Bears. He began his coaching career as a graduate assistant coach at Maine in 1978 and after stints as the head coach of Stoughton High School in Massachusetts and an offensive assistant at Boston College, he returned to Orono in 1987. He was named Atlantic 10 Coach of the Year in 1996 and 2001 and is tied with Harold Westerman for the most coaching wins all-time at Maine.

Offensive Scouting Report: Maine began their season on the road at Iowa of the BIG TEN on Saturday, losing 46-3. In the game, the Black Bears gained 220 yards of total offense, including 137 on the ground. Preseason All-Colonial Athletic Association running back Jhamal Fluellen gained 104 yards on 21 carries in the contest. Last year, Fluellen gained 1,052 yards and five touchdowns and is the focal point of the Maine offense. Derek Session also gained 21 yards on four carries for UM. The Black Bears struggled throwing the football as quarterback Adam Farkes was 9-22 passing against the Hawkeyes with a pair on interceptions. He threw for 83 yards, 40 of which belong to receiver Michael Brusko. Last season, the Black Bears ranked 11th in the 12-team CAA in scoring offense, averaging 16.9 points per game, but the Black Bears did rank fourth in the CAA in rushing, averaging a shade under 179 yards per game on the ground.

Defensive Scouting Report: Maine’s defense surrendered 457 yards of total offense to Iowa last Saturday, including 212 passing yards and 245 yards on the ground. Preseason CAA Defensive Player of the Year Jovan Belcher, a senior defensive end, led the UM defense with nine tackles, including one for loss. Sophomore linebacker Levi Erwin was second on the team with seven stops. The Black Bears picked off one pass and broke up three others against the Hawkeyes. The Maine defense returns eight starters to last year’s unit which ranked seventh in the CAA in scoring defense, giving up 24.5 points per game. The Black Bears ranked fourth in pass defense in the league (191.1 ypg), fifth in rushing defense (146.0 ypg) and fourth in overall defense. When the UM defense allowed the opposition to reach the red zone, they scored, as they gave up scores on 95.7 % of their chances, including 17 touchdowns.

Special Teams Scouting Report: Maine’s kickoff return team averaged 14.8 yards per return against Iowa, as they brought back five kickoffs for 74 yards. Trevor Coston led the Black Bears with four returns for 52 yards. Brian Harvey hit his only field goal against Iowa, connecting on a 40-yarder. Kash Kiefer is Maine’s punter, hitting seven punts for 279 yards.

My take on Maine and my prediction:

For the second straight week, Monmouth takes on a team from the Colonial Athletic Association. Last season the Hawks and Maine squared off to begin the 2007 campaign, with Monmouth falling to the Black Bears 21-14 in Orono.

Traditionally, Maine is a very strong defensive team that relies on that unit for field position for the offense. The Black Bears are no different this year as they tout Preseason CAA Defensive Player of the Year Javon Belcher at defensive end. They can also run the ball with reigning All-CAA running back Jhamal Fluellen, who last week cracked the century mark. Weather has the potential to affect tomorrow’s game as Hurrican Hanna makes her way up the coast. In bad weather games, the advantage normally goes to the team that can run the ball and stop the run, and to that point both teams can do both of those things well.

If Dave Sinisi can offset what Fluellen produces in the run game, that will be a huge point for the Hawks. Monmouth has the advantage throwing the football, but depending on the severity of the weather, that may not be an issue. At last check, it was supposed to be in the upper 70’s temp. wise with rain and wind expected to be around 15-25 mph. That weather, combined with two teams that can run the ball and do stop the run means we could be looking at a low-scoring affair.
Whoever scores early will have the advantage in this contest. Last week, my score differential of three was correct, and this week, it will also be a close game. I think Monmouth carries their momentum from last week’s strong second half performance into this week’s game, Sinisi has another 100-yard game and the defense contains Fluellen to the tune of a 17-13 Monmouth win.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Week 1 Wrap-up

Monmouth fell to Rhode Island 27-24 on Saturday in a very competitive game that saw MU fall behind 17-3 at the half but battle all the way back to cut it to three with 1:19 left before an illegal procedure penalty negated John Nalbone’s recovered onside kick.

The Hawks were balanced offensively, gaining 180 yards through the air and 140 on the ground, 138 of which came from Dave Sinisi. The MU defense held Rhode Island to 93 yards rushing, but the Rams passed for 257 yards in their new spread offense under new head coach Darren Rizzi.

Monmouth played very well after halftime, outscoring URI 21-10. Quarterback Brett Burke bounced back from a rough first half to throw a pair of touchdowns after halftime and 10 different receivers (!!!) caught passes. The Hawks played a very good game, and along with Albany, who fell 28-16 at UMASS, did the NEC proud on the opening weekend.

This week, MU hosts Maine, who lost at Iowa 46-3 this past Saturday. I will preview the match-up later this week, and this is the first of two consecutive home games that the Hawks will play against schools that opened up with Football Bowl Subdivision schools (next week they play Coastal Carolina, who lost 66-10 at Penn State).