Albany Scouting Report/Prediction

Albany Scouting Report

Offense: The Albany offense is predicated on a power running game centered on tailback David McCarty. The Great Danes run the ball more than 60% of the time as a team, with 57% of their carries going to McCarty. UAlbany averages 176 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in the league, and McCarty is second in individual rushing (behind MU’s David Sinisi) with 752 yards. McCarty also is tied for the league lead with eight rushing touchdowns. Two other rushers, Justin Gannon and Andrew Smith, both have over 255 yards rushing, and Smith is averaging 7.1 yards per carry. UA is throwing the football this year better than in recent seasons, averaging 167 passing yards per game. QB Vinny Esposito is completing 56.1% of his passes with seven scores this season and his leading receiver is sixth-year senior Tim Bush, who has 37 catches for 535 yards. Two other receivers, Jason Poore and Ryan Kirchner, have at least 13 catches and 142 yards receiving. The Great Danes average 25.3 points per game, which is good enough for fourth in the nine-team league.

Defense: The Great Danes play some of the most consistent defense in the conference year in and year out. This season, they rank first in the league in scoring and rushing defense, allowing 18.7 points and 98.1 rushing yards per game, respectively. Teams have had success throwing the ball against UA, as they give up 211.3 yards per contest and allow their opponents to complete a league-high 61.4% of their passes. Linebacker Justin Brancaccio leads the squad with 60 tackles and also had 5.5 tackles for loss. Linebacker Dave Nicomini, who missed all of last season with an injury, is second on the team with 49 stops and leads the squad with 10 tackles for loss. UAlbany has 54 tackles for loss as a team, including 17 sacks. They have also blocked three kicks this season so far. Last week against Bryant, the Great Danes held the Bulldogs to more than 100 rushing yards below their season average in a 20-17 win. UA has held their last five opponents under 17 points, including a 20-16 comeback win over then-#20 Maine.

Special teams: Herb Glass is the Great Danes kicker and he has connected on 11-of-16 field goals this season, including a 48-yarder. He is a perfect 6-for-6 from between 18-29 yards this season and has made 4-of-7 from between 30-39 yards. Bobby Woods is the team’s punter, and averages 35.7 yards per punt, pinning the opposition inside their 20-yard line five times. Andrew Smith and Emerson Kinsey are the team’s two kickoff returners, averaging 25.2 and 24.8 yards per kick return, respectively. Justin Gannon is the squad’s punt returner, averaging 14.4 yards per return, which leads the conference. UA has only allowed 17 punt return yards this season, and limits their opposition to less than 20 yards per kick return.

My take: This is the game in the Northeast Conference every season. It is tradtionally football played at its purest, with the team that runs the ball and stops the run the most effectively normally winning. The Hawks four straight in the season in the mid-2000's, but UAlbany has won two straight times in the series (and two straight league titles). If the Hawks can corral McCarty and the Great Danes rushing offense, and force Esposito to throw on obvious passing downs, they can be successful. MU must force-feed Sinisi to the Great Danes, try to soften the middle of their defense, and then take some shots in the passing game with QB Kyle Frazier and his receiving corps. If MU can be balanced on offense and solid on defense, they will have a chance in this game. Being that the contest will be played on Monmouth's Homecoming, and knowing what that means as a grad, I think the Hawks will come through with the win at home. Frazier continues to impress as the team's starting QB and tight end Tyler George (my X-factor) takes the next step in the passing game and catches some big passes on bootlegs and in the seam. Sinisi will have a workmanlike day in front of the home crowd, and MU's opportunistic forces Esposito into 3rd and longs and comes up with a few turnovers, while Mike Avent and the special teams return game will give the Hawks the ball in good field position. Monmouth comes away with a shocking 27-23 win at home at Homecoming.