Thursday, September 17, 2009

Duquesne Scouting Report/My Prediction

Offense: The Dukes offense is listed as running “multiple” sets and that is exactly what they do. Duquesne will line up with a fullback and tight end play, and then in a four-wide, shotgun set the next. The versatile offense has not put up very flashy numbers, but it has been very solid in its execution during the first two games this season against very good competition. DU is averaging 385 total yards per game, including a Northeast Conference-high 237.5 passing yards per contest. Much like the Hawks, the Dukes use two QB’s in Kevin Rombach and Michigan State transfer Connor Dixon. Rombach has completed 48.3% of his passes this season for 173 yards with a TD and a pick, while Dixon has connected on 63% of his passes for 302 yards and two TD’s. Another Michigan State transfer, WR Dave Williams, has been both QB’s favorite target with 12 catches for 228 yards and two TD’s. The ground game, which averages almost 150 yards per game, is paced by true freshman Larry McCoy. He has rushed for 226 yards this season on 48 carries, good enough for second in the league.

Defense: Unlike Coastal Carolina, that changed up its defensive fronts seemingly on every play, Duquesne will stick with their base 4-3 defensive alignment. The Dukes have played very well on the defensive side of the ball this year, allowing 289 total yards per game this season. The Dukes have been vulnerable to the opposition’s ground game this season, giving up 208 yards per game and almost five yards per carry. DU only gives up 81 passing yards per game and allows their opponents to complete only 45.2% of their passes. The Dukes have also intercepted four passes and recovered two fumbles this season. Anthony Rhoades leads the team with 17 tackles, while linebacker Nathan Totino is second with 15 stops and two forced fumbles. Duquesne has four sacks and seven passes defended this season, and has only allowed 16.5 points per game this year. The Dukes have also been effective at getting off the field on third downs, allowing opponents to convert only 33% of its third downs.

Special Teams: The Dukes kicker is freshman Eric Duale, who has converted only one-of-three field goals this season. Duale also handles the kickoff duties for the team. They also have a freshman punter in Charlie Leventry, who has punted 10 times for an average of 34.2 yards per kick. He has put half of his punts inside the 20-yard line. Williams also handles the kickoff return chores, averaging 20 yards per return. Willie Milhouse has returned one kick for 42 yards this season. Three players, Williams, Issac Spragg and Justin Melhado have all returned punts this season for a combined average of eight yards per return.

My take: After two weeks of playing teams in higher profile conferences, the Hawks return to the NEC against the Dukes. Duquesne has also played two very good teams, defeating Bucknell and losing to Nicholls State, both teams that run the triple option offense.

I think MU has a favorable match-up this week and should return to their customary balanced offensive production with David Sinisi and QB's Andrew Mandeville and Kyle Frazier. I would look for the Hawks to churn out close to 200 yards on the ground, throwing for another 150 between both QB's. Duquesne QB's Rombach and Dixon are very good also, and WR Williams is a very productive player. The Dukes are a very good team, but I think MU continues to play hard and comes away with a 27-16 win.

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